Tendencies of Ukrainian agrarian market in January 2022.

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Traditionally, representing to your attention a brief overview of the world and Ukrainian agrarian sector news.

USDA experts raised the forecast for the corn harvest in Ukraine in 2021/22 MY to 42 million tons, which is 2 million tons more than the forecast volume a month earlier. In December, analysts also raised the forecast for grain from 38 million tons to 40 million tons.

In the January forecast, USDA analysts also increased the export performance of corn for MY 2021/22 for Ukraine compared to the December forecast by 1 million tons to 33.5 million tons.

Export quotations for Ukrainian corn rose to the highest level since November 2021 amid increased external demand and the need to cover previously concluded contracts.

Also, according to USDA forecasts, the global corn harvest in 2021/22 MY was reduced to 1,206.96 million tons, which is 1.77 million tons against forecasts in December (1,208.73 million tons). The estimate of world exports of corn was also reduced to 204.2, which is 0.69 million tons less than the December forecast. The final balance of grain in the world, according to USDA experts, will reach 303.07 million tons, which is 2.47 million tons less than the preliminary estimate – 305.54 million tons.

USDA raised the forecast for world wheat production for MY 2021/22 to 778.6 million tons, which is 0.71 million tons more than the previous forecast (777.89 million tons).

The report notes that USDA experts left unchanged the forecast for the wheat harvest for Ukraine for 2021/22 MY at the forecast level of 33 million tons. In turn, grain exports, according to analysts, remained at the level of the December forecast – 24.2 million tons. The ending stocks of grain according to forecasts increased by 0.2 million tons and amount to 1.61 million tons.

US and European wheat prices declined after USDA analysts released their January production forecast.

As a result of these forecasts, the March futures for US wheat fell by $0.12 per bushel, the price of European wheat fell by €5.5 per ton, and for the Black Sea – by $3.5 per ton.

It is noted that the corn market after the publication of the USDA report is relatively calm. March futures for US corn decreased by $0.02 per bushel, while for the Black Sea it did not change.

Prices for mineral fertilizers in the world have started to decline after reaching a peak in November-December 2021. However, they are still well above the level of early 2021. Andrey Sizov, director of the SovEcon agricultural analytical center, noted that there are several reasons for the reversal. The main thing, of course, is the decline in gas prices in Europe, which also peaked in November and have since dropped by half.

Ukraine will export wheat to Indonesia: the country has renewed the accreditation of laboratories. The Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Indonesia has renewed the accreditation of the Odessa Border State Control and Toxicological Laboratory for Food Security and the Odessa Regional State Laboratory of the State Consumer Service for the next 3 years. The press service said that this decision guaranteed further uninterrupted supplies of Ukrainian agricultural products, primarily wheat, to the Indonesian market.

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