Tendencies of Ukrainian agrarian market in October 2021.

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Traditionally, representing to your attention a brief overview of the world and Ukrainian agrarian sector news.

USDA analysts lowered the forecast for the corn harvest in 2021/22 MY in Ukraine to 38 million tons, which is 1 million tons less than the forecast for September (39 million tons). According to the report, the forecast for the export of corn from Ukraine in 2021/22 MY was lowered to 31.5 million tons, which is 0.5 million tons less than the forecast volume in the previous month. The final grain balance is forecasted at the level of 0.91 million tons, which is 0.2 million tons less than the previous forecast (1.11 million tons). However, the forecast for the quality of the corn crop in 2021/22 MY was raised up to 1,198.22 million tons, which is 0.45 million tons higher than the forecast for September (1,197.77 million tons).

As of October 19, 2021, the supply of Ukrainian corn decreased by about $ 1 – to $ 280 per ton FOB Nikolaev against $ 281 per ton (October 15). At the same time, some sellers offered corn at $ 277 per ton, while others – at $ 283 per ton FOB Nikolaev for November delivery. Despite the fact that the December futures for Black Sea corn increased, prices in the Ukrainian market have stabilized, as the high cost of logistics and drying limits the sale of grain. Ukrainian grain growers note that the stabilization in the market is temporary, and after the end of the grain harvest, the situation will change in the opposite direction.

USDA experts have lowered the forecast for the sunflower harvest in Ukraine by 0.5 million tons to 17 million tons (17.5 million tons the previous forecast) in 2021/22 MY. Analysts also downgraded the estimate of sunflower meal production from 6.93 million tons to 6.83 million tons, sunflower oil production – from 7.23 million tons to 7.12 million tons.

Against the background of a rapid rise in prices for other types of vegetable oils, export quotations for Ukrainian crude sunflower oil rose to a 4-month high, adding almost $ 30 per ton in one day. It is noted that the prices for sunflower oil rushed to the level of $ 1450 per ton FOB for supplies in November-December, also supported by a limited supply of sunflower. “Prices of proposals for the supply of oil from Ukraine in November-December 2021 during October 20, 2021. reached $ 1430-1440 per ton FOB, but then, with the support of exchange quotations, increased to $ 1450-1460 per ton. Export prices for sunflower oil on the CPT basis reached the highest level since June 2021 at $ 1400 per ton for October-November delivery ”, – analysts say.

World wheat prices in August rose to their highest level since 2013 on expectations of lower yields due to unfavorable weather conditions in Russia and drought in the United States and Canada. Exchange markets continue to trade expectations of high demand for wheat amid production problems from most exporters. It is noted that prices on the Ukrainian grain market continue to grow. In addition, wheat quotes in Chicago rose by $ 0.03 per bushel, for European grain they increased by € 2 per ton, and for the Black Sea grain fell by $ 2.5 per ton. Prices for Ukrainian wheat continued to strengthen after the world for the fourth week in a row. As of October 26, 2021, the supply of Ukrainian wheat with protein 12.5% ​​and 11.5% FOB Berdyansk with delivery in November increased by $ 1-2 per ton against Friday, October 22 – to $ 298 and $ 295 per ton, respectively.

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