Tendencies of Ukrainian agrarian market in September 2021.

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Traditionally, representing to your attention a brief overview of the world and Ukrainian agrarian sector news.

The rise in oil prices in the world has led to an increase in the price of Ukrainian corn. On the export market for feed corn, there was a gradual increase in prices and intensification of purchasing activity, taking into account the growth of quotations of corn on the world market under the influence of rising oil prices.

USDA analysts raised their forecast for world corn production in 2021/22 MY to 1,197.77 million tons, which is 11.65 million tons more than the previous forecast (1,186.12 million tons). At the same time, experts did not change the forecast of the corn harvest for Ukraine in 2021/22 MY and left it at 39 million tons. Grain exports will amount to 32 million tons, and ending stocks will remain at the level of 1.11 million tons. After the September USDA release with its pressure factors to the wheat market, Black Sea sellers decided to concentrate on corn.

Global trends on the world market, as well as a decline in sunflower harvest last year, led to a sharp increase in prices for it since August-September. According to the expert, the increase in prices for raw materials provoked an unprecedented rise in prices for sunflower oil. Moreover, such a jump in prices occurred against the background of an increase in world production of other oilseeds and against the background of a drop in demand for oil due to quarantine and the consequences of the pandemic.

In Ukraine, prices for sunflower of the new harvest at the beginning of the harvesting campaign are at the level of 17 thousand UAH / t. “Probably, agrarians are expecting prices of 25 thousand UAH / t. But, according to our estimates, such a scenario is unlikely, ”the expert commented.

USDA analysts increased the forecast for the world wheat harvest in 2021/22 MY to 780.28 million tons, which is 3.37 million tons more than the forecast for August (776.91 million tons). The forecast for wheat exports in the world has been increased by 1.51 million tons and is expected to reach 199.74 million tons, the final stocks of wheat – 283.22 million tons. At the same time, experts did not change the assessment of wheat production and exports in Ukraine compared to last month. The forecast for wheat harvest is expected at 33 million tons, exports – 23.5 million tons. However, ending stocks of wheat are projected at 1.71 million tons, which is slightly lower than the previous forecast (1.8 million tons).

The total grain consumption in 2021/22 MY is projected to reach 2,809 million tons, which is 1.7 million tons less than forecast in July, but still 1.4% (40.1 million tons) higher than in 2020/21 MG, and will be a new record.

The government approved the draft Law on the State Budget of Ukraine for 2022 and, together with the relevant materials, submitted it to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine for consideration. It is planned to allocate UAH 4.6 billion for state support to agrarians in 2022, which is more than UAH 301 million compared to the plan for 2021.

A mini-MBA program for farmers with the support of USAID was launched in Ukraine on September 24, 2021. It is noted that the concept of the curriculum was developed by UFV experts and funded by the USAID Program for Agrarian and Rural Development in Ukraine – AGRO.

With kind regards, team of GC “Agroliga”.

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