Traditionally, representing to your attention a brief overview of the world and Ukrainian agrarian sector news.
In early April, on the release of the USDA report on planted areas and balances of major crops, futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange reacted with a bullish rally. “In case of positive dynamics on the stock exchanges, the Ukrainian market may interrupt the downward trend and demonstrate another round of growth before the start of the new season. Therefore, farmers should closely monitor the price situation and sell grain leftovers in the growing market, ”the experts said.
The Ukrainian government adopted a decree on expanding state support for agricultural producers in 2021, adding six new programs. Among the new support programs for the agro-industrial complex: state support for insurance of agricultural products; compensation for losses as a result of emergency situations; state support for organic producers. As part of these programs, the state will compensate farmers for the losses they suffered last year as a result of extreme weather conditions.
USDA experts downgraded the forecast of corn exports from Ukraine in 2020/21 MY by 1 million tons.Thus, corn exports from Ukraine will reach 23 million tons against 24 million.According to the report, the estimate of corn production in Ukraine remained at the previous level – 29.5 million tons The forecast for grain ending stocks also remained unchanged at 0.89 million tons. For wheat, the situation has not changed: production – at 25.5 million tons, exports – 17.5 million tons, ending stocks – 1.12 million tons.
World production of sunflower oil in 2020/21 MY is expected to reach 19.3 million tons, which is 2.11 million tons (10%) less than the previous season. USDA experts have lowered the estimate of the sunflower crop in the world from 50.14 million tons last month to 49.6 million tons, which is 5.08 million tons below MY 2019/20 (54.68 million tons). At the same time, the global production of sunflower meal is expected at 20.72 million tons against 22.13 million tons in 2019/20 MY. At the same time, analysts have not changed the forecast for Ukraine and estimate the yield of sunflower seeds in 2020/21 MY at 14 million tons, the production of sunflower meal and oil is also 5.69 million tons and 5.92 million tons, respectively.
In April, traders sold two shipments of Ukrainian rapeseed to Canadian buyers, a highly unusual deal that points to the impact of a sharp rise in global demand for oilseeds. According to traders, sales were carried out from the 2021 harvest with delivery in August, while it was about two deliveries, each of 30 thousand tons.
According to the forecast of scientists of the Institute of Agrarian Economics, the gross harvest of grain and pulses crops in 2021 will amount to 70.7 million tons, which is 8.8% higher than the 2020 figure of 65 million tons. After the record 2019, this will be the second largest grain production indicator for the time of independence of Ukraine. The increase in the gross harvest of grain and leguminous crops will be mainly due to the achievement of record harvests of winter wheat – at the level of 28.5 million tons and winter barley – 3.95 million tons, as well as an increase from 29.8 million tons to 31.1 million tons harvest of corn for grain, which takes the largest share in Ukraine.
Despite the breezy weather, during the first half of April, the agrometeorological conditions for the growth and development of winter crops were good and satisfactory. The experts noted that the favorable moisture supply of the soil is positive, which allows grain producers to effectively carry out nitrogen fertilization, which contributes to an increase in the yield of winter grain crops. Moreover to date, most of the enterprises have finished feeding winter crops.
With kind regards, team of GC “Agroliga”.